我国个人所得税的再分配效果分析

An Analysis of the Redistribution Effect of Personal Income Tax in China

中文关键词:  个人所得税  收入再分配  MT指数  累进性指数

英文关键词:personal income tax  income redistribution  MT indicator  progressivity indicator

中文摘要:

      基于1988—2007年间的城镇住户调查数据,结合相应时期的收入分布变化,研究了调查期间个税制度的再分配效果。文章将收入分布变化分解为平均收入水平、收入构成和收入差距,用三个假说阐明它们对个税再分配效果的影响机理,并用六组反事实模拟进行估算和验证。同时,从收入变动的动态角度评价了四类税制的再分配效果。经过测算发现,近二十年的收入分布变化将1980年税制的再分配效果提高了44倍左右,后续的税制改革削弱了再分配效果。不过,在当前收入分布持续变化的趋势下,新税制的最大再分配能力将优于旧税制,因此有必要在合适的条件下及时调整税制。

英文摘要:

      This paper has mainly analyzed the redistribution effect of personal income tax in the past 20 years with the data from the urban household survey conducted from 1988 to 2007, taking into consideration of the change of income distribution of the corresponding periods. This paper has decomposed the change of income distribution into three parts—average income levels, income structure, and income gap, presented the mechanism of their influencing the effect of personal income redistribution with three hypotheses, and evaluated and tested the mechanism with 6 groups of simulations which is contrary to the facts. Meanwhile, this paper has evaluated the redistribution effect of four tax systems from the dynamic point of view. This paper, after measurement, has found that the change of income distribution of the last 20 years has increased the redistribution effect of the tax system of 1980 forty-four times, but the tax system reform of the last few years has weakened the redistribution effect. However, if the income distribution continue changing, the maximum redistribution power of new tax system is better than that of the old tax system. Therefore, it is necessary to modify tax system under appropriate circumstances. 