北京市出口需求对内需增长影响的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis on Export Demands' Impacts on Enhancing Domestic Demands in Beijing

中文关键词:  出口需求  内需增长  消费需求  VAR模型

英文关键词:export demands  enhancing domestic demands  consumption demands  VAR model

中文摘要:

      实现对外经贸发展水平的进一步提升,是北京市调整经济结构、转变经济发展方式的战略方向。利用1986—2012年北京市出口需求与消费、投资需求的相关数据,通过VAR模型探讨了出口需求变化与内需变化之间的因果关系,在此基础上,建立了实证模型估算其影响效应。结果表明:北京市出口需求变化影响内需增长,主要表现为出口需求的变化影响居民最终消费需求,出口需求每增加1%,居民最终消费支出水平提高0.0298%；另外,汇率、对外开放政策对于北京市 内需的扩大有积极正向的影响。最后,文章探索了调整出口需求和扩大内需的有效方式,为北京市加快转变经济发展方式、实现经济结构战略性调整提供了政策建议。

英文摘要:

      To enhance the level of foreign trade is an effective way and strategic direction as to Beijing's adjustment of economic structure and transformation of economic developing mode. Based on the related data from 1986 to 2012, this paper established a VAR Model to discover the causal relationship between the changes in export demands and domestic demands in Beijing. Following the above study, another empirical model was established to quantify their impacts.The results showed that:the change of export demands affected the domestic demands growth, especially on residential consumption demands.Each 1% increase in export volume led to a 0.0298% increase in residential consumption expenditures; exchange rate and the open-door policy had positive effects on enhancing domestic demands.This paper also aimed to explore the effective way of enhancing domestic demandsand adjusting the structure of export demands. Eventually, this paper proposed some practical advice to accelerate the transformation of Beijing economic developing mode as well as to achieve the strategic economic restructuring. 