城市化水平与产业结构演化的国际比较——基于38个国家和地区的数据

An International Comparison of Urbanization with Consideration of Industrial Structures Based on Data from 38 Countries and Regions

中文关键词:  城市化  人均GDP  产业结构  服务业

英文关键词:urbanization  per capita GDP  industry structure  service sector

中文摘要:

      文章从世界各国城市化发展的规律及发展模式出发,通过对38个国家和地区1976—2011年城市化与人均GDP、工业和服务业的理论和实证研究后认为,中国与世界平均城市化水平的差距为4～11个百分点。中国与世界城市化水平有一定的差距,但差距没有想象的那么大。中国城市化与人均GDP的回归曲线离日本和德国的最近,中国最有可能采用日本和德国的城市化发展模式,在很长的一段时间内中国的城市化率只能发展到76%的水平。工业仍然和城市化一起在中国经济增长中发挥着重要作用,但服务业占GDP的比重仍将逐步提高,服务业在经济增长中将越来越重要,提高服务业与工业的相对劳动生产率是今后中国经济发展的必然选择。决策者应该根据城市化发展阶段和居民收入水平制定城市化的发展政策。

英文摘要:

      Based on theoretical and empirical studies of the relationship between urbanization and per capita GDP, and industrial sector and service sector in 38 countries and regions during the period of 1976-2011, this paper analyzes China's urbanization and industrial and service sector, and suggests that China's difference in urbanization with world average level is from 4%-11%. China's difference in urbanization with world average level is not so large as some scholars claimed. The regression curve of China's urbanization on per capita GDP is nearest to that of Japan and Germany; during a long period China's urbanization may only reach to 76%; industrial sector, along with urbanization, will maintain crucial roles in economic growth, while the significance of service sector will rise in economic growth and its share in GDP will expand. Improving labor productivity of services with respect to industry is the inevitable choice of China's future economic development. And decision-makers should develop policies based on urbanization development stage and the people's income level. 