短期经济波动如何影响长期增长？——来自中国省级层面的证据

How Volatility Affects Long-term Growth? ——Evidence From China's Provincial Data

中文关键词:  短期经济波动  长期增长  对外依存度  宏观政策

英文关键词:The short-term economic volatility  long-term growth  degree of dependence on foreign trade  macropolicies

中文摘要:

      文章尝试把宏观经济学两大主题——短期波动和长期增长纳入统一的理论框架,并使用我国30个省、自治区和直辖市1978—2012年的数据,建立双向固定效应模型来验证短期波动对长期增长的影响。研究结果表明:中国各省份的短期波动对长期增长既有正向影响,又有负向影响；政策、市场、技术和制度的不确定性都会带来经济的波动；与政策的不确定性相比,市场,特别是国际市场的不确定性似乎更容易带来经济的波动性。为了促进经济的长期增长,政府应构建有利于企业技术创新的宏观环境,降低宏观政策的波动性。

英文摘要:

      This paper tries to put two main themesof macroeconomics, short-term fluctuations and long-term growth, into a unified framework, to set up a two-way fixed effect model, and to verify the impact of short-term fluctuations on the long-term growth by applying the data from 1978 to 2012 of 30 provinces. The result shows that:short-term fluctuations of provinces have both positive and negative effects on long-term growth; policy, market, uncertainty of technology and system may cause volatility; and compared with the uncertainty of policy, market, especially the uncertainty of international market is more likely to cause volatility. In order to stimulate long-term growth, government should construct a macro environment to enhance technology innovation and to reduce volatility. 