人口红利推高中国房地产价格了吗？——驱动机制及其实证检验

Has Demographic Dividend Driven up China's Real Estate Price? —Driving Mechanism and Empirical Test

中文关键词:  人口红利  房地产价格  传导机制  面板向量自回归模型  通径分析

英文关键词:demographic dividend  real estate price  transmission mechanism  PVAR model  path analysis

中文摘要:

      人口红利深刻影响着一国经济增长和城市化进程,间接主导着房地产市场的长期发展。文章在理论分析人口红利对房地产价格内在驱动机制的基础上,采集了1999—2011年我国各省份人口与房地产价格数据,利用面板固定效应模型与向量自回归模型,结合通径分析,研究了人口红利推高房价的直接与间接机制,以及人口红利冲击对房价的长期与短期影响。研究发现,人口红利既能够直接推高房地产价格,又能够通过房地产投资、信贷等中介变量间接推高房地产价格,且房贷对房价的冲击路径呈现U型特征。

英文摘要:

      Demographic dividend has a deep impact on a nation's economic growth and urbanization, and indirectly dominates the long-run development of real estate market. This paper gives a theoretical analysis of the internal driving mechanism of demographic dividend upon real estate price. On that basis, with a collection of the panel data of population and real estate price from 1999 to 2011 in China's provinces, using the fixed-effects panel model and panel vector auto regression (PVAR) model together with path analysis, this paper studies both direct and indirect mechanisms in which how demographic dividend causes the increase in real estate price, as well as the short-term and long-term impacts of demographic dividend on housing price. The research reveals that demographic dividend can push up the real estate price directly, and through investment and credit in real estate as well as other intervening variables indirectly. Additionally, the impact path shows a U-shaped relationship between mortgage and housing price. 