我国猪肉价格波动的原因分析与政策建议

Analysis of the Pork Price Fluctuation in China and Policy Proposals

中文关键词:  猪肉价格  价格波动  蛛网模型  玉米价格  价格预警

英文关键词:pork price  fluctuation  cobweb model  corn price  price warning

中文摘要:

      以猪肉价格波动的特征为切入点,运用蛛网模型分析供求曲线的弹性关系,发现近年来我国猪肉价格波动具有发散性特征,不能自发达到均衡。为进一步解释猪肉价格波动的原因,运用向量自回归模型对成本、替代品等影响猪肉价格的因素进行定量分析,研究发现,玉米价格对于猪肉价格波动的影响十分明显,其影响在6个月左右达到峰值,而其他因素对于猪肉价格波动的影响并不明显。因此,可以在参考玉米价格的基础上,通过引导建立有效的育种体系和联动的价格预警机制来抑制猪肉价格的过度波动。

英文摘要:

      In recent years, abnormal fluctuationsof China's pork price occur frequently and bring tremendous impact on producers and consumers. To explain the unusual fluctuations in the pork market, we firstly point out their features,using cobweb model to analyze the elasticity between supply and demand and finding that thefluctuations are divergent, which can not achieve spontaneous equilibrium. Secondly, to explain the causes of the fluctuations, we use vector auto regression model to quantitatively analyzethe influential factors, such as cost, and substitution, etc. We find, there is an obvious relationship between the fluctuations of corn price and pork price, with the time lag of six months. And the influence of other factors is not obvious. So according to corn price, we can establish an effective warning mechanism and breeding system to slow down excessive pork price fluctuations. 