现金流量的分解、业务稳定性与预测未来现金流量的能力

Cash Flow Disaggregation, Stability of Business and Predictive Ability for Future Cash Flow

中文关键词:  现金流量分解  业务稳定性  经营活动现金流  直接法  间接法

英文关键词:cash flow disaggregation  stability of business  operating cash flow  direct method  indirect method

中文摘要:

      文章研究了现金流量表中分解经营活动现金流量的直接法和间接法对未来经营活动现金流量的预测能力。研究发现,与单独提供现金流量总量相比,将总流量分解成 不同的指标,能够改进对经营活动现金流量的预测。采用间接法的预测效果要好于直接法。而且,企业业务稳定性会影响两种方法的预测效果。对于业务不稳定的样本,间接法与直接法预测效果的差距更为明显。

英文摘要:

      This paper examines the predictive ability for future operating cash flow of direct and indirect method of the cash flows from operating activities in cash flow statement. The research finds that model incorporating components of CFO to predict future operating cash flow is superior to an aggregate cash flow model. The predictive effect of indirect method is superior to direct method. Moreover, the stability of business impacts the gap of predictive ability between the two methods. For unstable sample, the gap of predictive ability is more obvious between indirect method and direct method. 