互联网扩散与经济增长的关系研究——基于我国31个省份面板数据的实证检验

Relationship between Internet Diffusion and Economic Growth: Empirical Research Based on Panel Data of China’s 31 Provinces

中文关键词:  互联网  互联网扩散  经济增长  面板数据

英文关键词:Internet  Internet diffusion  economic growth  panel data

中文摘要:

      根据2003—2011年9年间我国31个省份互联网普及率和人均实际GDP的数据，在单位根检验和协整检验基础上，建立了个体时点双向固定效应模型，对互联网扩散与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明：互联网对我国经济增长具有促进作用，这种促进作用在2007年以后逐渐显著；互联网普及率每提高10%，人均实际GDP提高大约1.38%；由于各地工业化水平等发展基础的差异，互联网对地区经济增长的影响程度呈现出明显的区域差异；通过建立滞后效应模型发现，互联网对经济增长的滞后作用在第5年达到最大。

英文摘要:

      According to the data on Internet user ratio and real GDP per capita in China’s 31 provinces during 9 years from 2003 to 2011, based on the unit root test and the cointegration test, this paper constructs an individual time-point bi-directional fixed effect model to make an empirical analysis on the relationship between Internet diffusion and economic growth. The result shows that the Internet plays a positive role in promoting China’s economic growth, with the promoting role gradually significant after 2007. Every 10% increase in Internet user ratio brings an increase in real GDP per capita at roughly 1.38%. Because of the difference in the basis for development such as industrialization level nationwide, the Internet’s impact on regional economic growth presents an obvious regional disparity. Through the establishment of lag effect models, it is found that the Internet’s lag effect on economic growth reaches the maximum in the 5th year.