国产消费品安全事故对消费需求的影响分析

Effect Analysis of Chinas Local Consumer Product Safety Accidents on Consumption Demand

中文关键词:  消费品安全事故  替代效应  结构性替代效应  反向替代效应  挤出效应

英文关键词:consumer product safety accident  substitution effect  structural substitution effect  reverse substitution effect  crowding out effect

中文摘要:

      自三聚氰胺事件之后相继发生的一系列国产消费品安全事故，已引起广泛关注。借鉴柯布道格拉斯函数形式构造了一个需求函数理论模型，分析结果表明：国产消费品安全事故会对总消费需求产生挤出效应，导致涉事进口产品结构性替代涉事国产产品。当涉事产品为非刚性需求产品时，涉事产品的需求会被非涉事产品替代；而当其为刚性需求产品时，涉事产品的需求会反向替代非涉事产品。并且，涉事进口产品价格上涨将加剧部分负面影响。对属于刚性需求的婴幼儿奶粉的问卷调查，进一步实证了理论模型的分析结果。

英文摘要:

      Following the melamine accident, a series of safety accidents have occurred to Chinas local consumer products, which has aroused wide public concern. The Cobb-Douglas function is used for reference to construct a theoretic model of demand function. The analytical results show that Chinas local consumer products safety accidents can produce crowding out effect on total consumption demand, which leads to a structural substitution effect that the import goods involved replaces the local product involved. When the involved product is not a rigid demand product involved, the demand for the involved product will be replaced by the alternative product not involved. When it is a rigid demand product, the demand for the involved product will have a reverse substitution effect on the products not involved. Moreover, the price increase in the involved import goods will exacerbate the negative effect in part. A questionnaire on infant milk powder with rigid demand is of further empirical proof to the analytical results of theoretic model.