中国城镇劳动力价格演变趋势分析

Evolution and Trend of China’s Labor Price in Urban Area

中文关键词:  价格  劳动力成本  三次样条模型  指数平滑状态空间模型

英文关键词:price  labor cost  CSM Model  EST Model

中文摘要:

      对中国城镇平均劳动力价格以及不同所有制单位、不同行业、不同地区劳动力价格的结构特征进行统计分析，构建了劳动力价格相对溢价（折价）指标，分析了不同所有制单位和行业之间劳动力价格的变动趋势，并使用了指数平滑状态空间模型以及三次样条模型对未来劳动力价格进行预测。研究表明：中国劳动力价格快速上涨，但仍处于较低水平；相对于2000年，国有单位劳动力价格处于溢价状态；行业间劳动力价格差距在扩大，而地区间差距在缩小；2015年中国城镇平均劳动力价格预计达到年均6.3万元。

英文摘要:

      The labor price in China’s urban area is reviewed and analyzed on average, by units’ registration status, by industry, and by area. Relative Labor Price Premium (Discount) Index is constructed and used to analyze different registration units’ and different industries’ labor price trends. China’s future labor price is predicted with EST model and CSM model. Research shows that China’s labor price grows rapidly but still at a relatively low level, the state-owned units gain a price premium compared with that in 2000, the labor price gaps between industries are increasing and the gaps between areas are narrowing slightly, and the prediction shows that China’s average labor price will reach RMB 63000 annually by 2015.