中国BOP表外资本外逃的主要渠道——进出口伪报分析

The Main Channel of Capital Flight Unreflected in China’s BOP——An Analysis of Trade Misinvoicing

中文关键词:  进出口伪报  进口高报  出口低报  资本外逃

英文关键词:trade misinvoicing  import over-invoicing  export under-invoicing  capital flight

中文摘要:

      本文首先讨论了进出口伪报的定义和估算方法,并使用世界进出口价格指数估算了1982—2005年我国的进出口伪报以剔除价格因素的影响。估算结果和分析表明,我国通过进出口伪报的BOP表外资本外逃在我国资本外逃总额中所占的比重逐年增加、我国进口高报一直保持负值。这说明我国进出口伪报是资本外逃的重要渠道,并且长期存在进口低报以逃避关税的走私违法行为,同时进口低报的非法资本流入也是2005年经常项目巨额顺差的一个不可忽视的潜在原因。

英文摘要:

      The definitions and measures of trade misinvoicing are firstly discussed in this paper. The world import and export price indices are used to eliminate the influence of price in the estimation of trade misinvoicing during 1982-2005. The results and analysis of the estimates show that the capital flight out of China’s BOP through trade misinvoicing accounts for a large increasing proportion in the total capital flight from China, and the import over-invoicing keeps negative. This indicates that trade misinvoicing is one of the most important channels, and there has been a great deal of smuggling to avoid tariff through import under-invoicing in China. Meanwhile, the illegal afflux of capital through import under-invoicing is also the contributing cause unable to be negletable for the large surplus of current account in 2005.