投资周期波动与经济增长关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Fluctuation of Investment Cycle and its Relationship with Economic Growth

中文关键词:  投资周期  经济增长  格兰杰影响  波动性

英文关键词:investment cycle  economic growth  Granger causality  fluctuation

中文摘要:

      通过建立投资周期模型,分析我国的投资波动频率以及固定资产投资循环波动指数的变化情况,然后运用Granger因果关系检验固定资产投资波动是否是形成经济周期的主要原因。由于固定资产投资中基础设施等低产出投资比重过大,导致产能过剩等问题。因此政府可以改革现行财税制度,以降低各级地方政府抓投资、上项目的冲动,以保持经济快速稳定增长。

英文摘要:

      With the investment cycle model established, the changes are analyzed in China's investment fluctuation frequency and the index of cyclic fluctuation in fixed asset investment. Then with Granger causality, a test is made on whether the fluctuation of fixed asset investment leads to economic cycle or not. Due to a too large proportion of low output investment such as infrastructure in fixed asset investment, the problems of a surplus in production capability, etc. have been resulted. Therefore, the government should reform the present fiscal and tax system to press down the impulse of local governments to blindly invest the projects so that a rapid and steady economic growth can be sustained.